Elaboration of a mechanistic model prototype for olive anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum spp.
Abstract
The available knowledge on olive anthracnose caused by Colletotrichum spp. was retrieved from literature, analyzed and synthetized following the system analysis approach, in order to develop a mechanistic model prototype able to simulate the life cycle of the pathogen. An analysis of published information was conducted to develop a set of mathematical equations expressing the relationships between weather, host and the pathogen. Three main stages of the life cycle have been divided into: I) release of conidia from acervuli formed on mummified, overwintering, drupes; II) primary infection of leaves, flowers and immature drupes by released conidia after latent period; and III) establishment of secondary infection with symptoms onset and production of new overwintering inoculum. The model prototype was tested using weather data (i.e.
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temperature T, rainfall R, relative humidity RH, leaf wetness LW) from four different locations in two growing seasons (2017-2018). The model outputs allowed describing the dynamic of the release of primary inoculum dose from mummified drupe, conidial dispersal, first and secondary infection, latent period and infectious period. A model evaluation was not possible because of the lack of observed disease data. Thus, the validation of the internal coherence of the model and an overview of model outputs were carried out here. The future perspectives were also discussed, including the enhancement of available knowledge about this pathosystem and the possible improvement of the model prototype. Further research is needed to get insight on the duration of the infectious period and its relationship with the external factors. Finally, model validation in the field with real data about the disease is required before an operational use of the model to support farmers decisions.
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Biblioteca
Biblioteca CIHEAM Bari
Documento per sola consultazione interna
Collocazione
ARCH M.Sc. 887 2019
Documento per sola consultazione interna
Collocazione
M.Sc. 887 A 2019
Documento per sola consultazione interna
Collocazione
M.Sc. 887 2019